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That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific.
(This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a Power Point deck.) This is going to be fun.
On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born?
In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it.
Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. So to the second question: how accurate is this number?